Adaptive strategies and population dynamics of polar seabirds under environmental constraints

Assessing the ongoing and future adaptive capacities of populations to cope with global changes is a major challenge. Relying on multi- and trans-disciplinary expertise, P137 has selected four main animal models (and phylogenetically-related marine predators): the King penguin Aptenodytes patagonicus, Adélie penguin Pygoscelis adeliae, Emperor penguin Aptenodytes forsteri, and, as an outgroup, Wilson’s storm petrels Oceanites oceanicus, to investigate the impact of environmental changes (natural and anthropic) on Southern Ocean ecosystems. P137 aims to explore in depth and draw a complete picture of the functional and evolutionary processes at work in these bio-indicators of the Southern Ocean, and to understand their evolutionary and demographic trajectories. By combining long-term monitoring programs (for instance, through automated electronic Life Observatories that produce, since 1998, unique worldwide penguin databases without the biasing effects of flipper bands) and ad hoc targeted studies, on land and at sea, we are in a position to understand the demographic trajectories of these four species in the light of two complementary mechanisms driving population responses to environmental variability: phenotypic plasticity, and microevolutionary processes. The core of our scientific approach is the encounter of essentially individual-based research, and big-data methodologies. Thus, we are able to leverage state-of-the-art numerical tools such as atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, machine-learning, or population genomics, and to bring them to bear on individual-level, near real-time data collected automatically in our electronic observatories. In turn, this approach allows us to robustly understand complex traits such as fitness or phenotypic plasticity, taking into account both large-scale predictors (climate change or evolutionary processes), and individual-scale parameters (age, sex, breeding experience, morphology) – and integrating them through the transitional layer that is the colony. The development of new predictive models of population responses to ecosystem changes (integrating agent-based models within demographic-selection modelling framework, based on scenarios forecast by the IPCC 2021), and the design of simple, scalar indicators for the state of the Southern Ocean ecosystems (based on breeding phenology anomalies, or average age acceleration) will be precious tools for population conservation measures and ecosystem management. Finally, following the spirit of the last quadrennial, we will continue to develop cutting edge technological innovations to minimize experimental disturbances and resulting scientific bias, such as automated radiofrequency identification, weighing and camera-tracking systems, mobile RFID antennas deployable on site or mounted on remote-operated vehicles, or networked external or implanted micro-loggers. In return, this will open new opportunities for science, enabling the exploration of research questions that could not have been addressed without these innovations.